Study: COVID-19 Fatality Risk Is Double Earlier Estimates

A study published in medRxiv estimated that between 1 percent and 2 percent of New Yorkers infected with COVID-19 — including those with no or mild symptoms — died between March 1 and May 16, reports HealthLeaders Media . This suggests that the fatality risk averaging 1.45 percent during that period is more than double the 0.7 percent risk identified in previous studies from China and France. The researchers considered 191,392 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and 20,141 confirmed and probable COVID-19 deaths in New York City during the studied timespan. Mortality risk was highest for older adults, with infection fatality risk of 4.67 percent for 65- to 74-year-olds and 13.83 percent for persons 75 and older. The authors said these estimates likely more accurately reflect the true mortality risk of the coronavirus as they rely on "robust data" collected by health officials in New York City, where specialists review all death certificates and post deaths in a unified electronic reporting system. "These dire estimates highlight the severity of COVID-19 in senior populations and the importance of infection prevention in congregate settings," the authors warned. "Thus, early detection and adherence to infection control guidance in long-term care and adult care communities should be a priority for COVID-19 response as the pandemic continues to unfold."