Fewer Kids Could Mean Lower Benefits, Fewer Caregivers in Future

A brief from the Center for Retirement Research (CRR) at Boston College estimates that the U.S. fertility rate has fallen despite the economic rebound, reports ThinkAdvisor . The researchers note that although fertility "typically rises in expansions," this time it has declined "more than it did during the recession." The potential permanency of this trend is suggested by factors that include a falling birth rate among Hispanics, a growing percentage of women with college degrees, a declining birth rate among non-religion-affiliated people, and a rise in the female-to-male wage ratio. "The future of the fertility rate is important in that it determines the age structure of the population, the ratio of workers to retirees and, hence, the finances of the Social Security system (which operates largely on a pay-as-you-go basis)," the report notes. "According to the 2018 Social Security Trustees Report, a total fertility rate of 1.8 children per woman instead of 2.0 would increase the program's 75-year deficit by 0.41 percent of taxable payrolls or a present value of almost $2 trillion." A CRR blog also stresses that, lacking a surge in immigration, there will be no workers coming in from outside the United States to counter lower Social Security contributions with their own. The blog also cites an AARP Public Policy Institute forecast of a "decline in the number of family members and friends available in the future to care for seniors."